Artisan and niche lines were the strongest part of the fragrance market last year with growth of new launches stepping up by +55% (on 2014), well ahead of the overall market’s respectable +15.6%. For the first time, over 2,000 new fragrances were launched in 2015.
— Read more at Artisan launches drive fragrance growth at TRBusiness. More numbers: in 1990, there were 76 new fragrance launches. In 2005, when I started Now Smell This, there were 454. In the years 2007 through 2009, the number hovered in the 800s. In 2011, there were 1220; in 2013 there were 1610.
In market news, analysts are predicting a collapse in the fragrance bubble…..
🙂
That’s sort of what I’ve said on my latest blog post. However, remember that even niche scents cost little to make (the liquid part), and many of the bottles are simple/uninspired, so considering how expensive they are, even if they only sell a small percentage of the bottles produced, they might still make a profit! I’m more critical of “experts” who talk as if us non-wealthy can afford to buy a bunch of niche bottles at retail prices. And they never seem to talk about or review the “cheapos” that are similar to popular niche or exclusive scents! Anyone want to guess why that is? Not long ago you could get 75 ml new bottles of several Cereus scents for $10-15 on ebay (I bought a few), total! That may be a mere sliver of what we will soon see, but I guess we should be glad (those of us with a little patience, and some time to head over to ebay once in a while). To me, and it seems to many others, the notion of niche as special (and warranting high prices) is eroding, the “cheapo clones” only being one reason, IMO.
Altough the number is overwhelming, you can already see signs that it might be reaching the top of its growing and then we will either see it stagnating or decreasing. See that comparing 2011 with 2013 you have a increase of aprox. 30%. Doing the same with 2013 and now you have a increase of 24%.
But honestly it might increase more, who knows? I’m pretty sure that this sector is being the affordable luxury that people can still pay on the economical crisis. Even that 300 dollars is a lot of money for a fragrance, compare with other items like leather goods, watches, jewelry and so on and then you see that it’s payable.
It will never go back to where I want it, which is 600 – 700.
Whoa! For a minute I thought you meant that you wanted prices of 600-700 dollars, rather than a release of 600-700 new scents in a year. That was a startling assertion.
Ha — you’re right, I wasn’t clear! I would like no more than 700 new fragrances a year.
wow! even 700 releases seems like a large number to me…I wonder what the figure was when I began this obsession in the early 70s….
In 1983, there were 30 new fragrances — that’s the earliest number I have.
Altough i think that the problem is not exactly the staggering number of launches. It’s a system of distribution and consumer experience that doesn’t fit it anymore. You have difficulty filtering from those volume of fragrances which ones suits you better. And this creates a stressful situation in my opinion.
But the opposite is not good too. I see many praising the 80’s, for instance, but i don’t see many pointing how similar 80’s fragrances where in their structures. So, if you didn’t like muscular huge white floral fragrances, for instance, you would have few options. In men’s aisle it was worse, almost all fragrances were fougeres of similar aroma. In this i think we live in much better scenario now.
That is all true for some consumers, yes, but as a perfumista who would like to keep track of all launches (and that’s not just about blogging, it was true even before I started blogging), even those that might not suit me, I’d be way happier with 6 or 700.
600 or 700 i guess lol Well, i think it’s better than 2000 to be honest. Considering that you tried new fragrances everyday you would have to sample more than 5 everyday to cover all fragrances! With 700 it would be no more than 2
I am not sure I agree with you on this. There was a lot of similarity, true, but when I first started seriously wearing fragrances in the early 1980s, I owned Krizia Uomo (vicious evergreen leather), Oscar de la Renta Pour Lui (massive kitchen-sink floral chypre), Lagerfeld (sweet powdery oriental), Jacomo de Jacomo (ultra-woody oriental), Vetyver de Fragonard (celery vetiver), and Grey Flannel (green floral): not a fougere in the bunch. I know there were an awful lot of fougeres on the market (many of the most famous men’s scents certainly were), but there were also an awful lot of scents that weren’t.
But you cannot mention specific standouts from the predominant style of the period. Those fragrances might represent what was different on eighties, but not what was the recurrent style of the era. It’s the same of excluding interesting fragrances today from the average rest. This is using the outliers to try to understand the behavior. You cannot do it when doing an analysis
I am in agreement with pyramus….when I look back at my fragrance wardrobe of the 80s they were all different fragrances….Nocturnes de Caron, Nikki de Saint Phalle, Calyx…to mention a few…..I would prefer less releases to not feel so overwhelmed and essentially give up on trying anything new…..for me the ideal number would be 50 per year…..then the following year 50 more….within five years that would be 250 new releases!
In terms of sales, people still seem to buy the same thing. Chanel No 5, La Vie, Coco Mad, J’Adore, some Lauders etc … still seem to to top the sales figures each year. Consumers seem to deal with the confusion of releases be ignoring them, essentially. A lot of product is being chucked at the market which does not stick.
But you cannot mention specific standouts from the predominant style of the period. Those fragrances might represent what was different on eighties, but not what was the recurrent style of the era. It’s the same of excluding interesting fragrances today from the average rest. This is using the outliers to try to understand the behavior. You cannot do it when doing an analysis
I don’t see how it can continue at this pace – I gave up on trying most new releases a couple of years ago due to it being overwhelming – but who knows.
I’m a dope, but what I don’t understand is launches vs sales. What does the increase in launches say about the sale of perfumes? It would be interesting to learn how many physical bottles of fragrance are on shelves now, versus 5 years ago. And how many more of those are being sold? Does the increase in perfume launches correlate at all in an increase in sales and profitability for the niche lines? Does the sale of niche perfumes cut into the sale of mainstream or does it enhance it? So many questions 😉
It’s a problem, because information about number of launches basically comes from Michael Edwards, and includes the fragrances he evaluates for his guides — most niche, but not all. There are small indie brands he does not include.
Information about fragrance stores basically comes from NPD, and they pretty much cover department store sales. So it is apples and oranges to begin with. (Although I am no expert, perhaps there are other organizations tracking sales.)
So far as I know there is no organization tracking indie / niche / boutique fragrance sales at independent retailers, or bought directly from the brand. And sometimes when you do read things about sales of niche, what you’re really reading about is the niche type stuff they sell in department stores.